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    Accepted:
    Impact of Mid- and Upper-Level Dry Air on Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Intensification: A modeling Study of Durian (2001)
    Yaping WANG, Yongjie HUANG, Xiaopeng CUI
    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-8039-0
    Abstract   ( 3 ) PDF (10373KB) (1)
    The impact of mid- and upper-level dry air, represented by low relative humidity (RH) values, on the genesis of tropical cyclone (TC) Durian (2001) in the South China Sea was investigated by a series of numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The mid-level RH was lowered in different regions relative to TC Durian’s genesis location. Results suggest that the location of dry air was important to Durian’s genesis and intensification. The rapid development of the TC was accompanied by sustained near-saturated mid- and upper-level air, whereas low humidity decelerated its development. Water vapor budget analysis showed that moisture at mid and upper levels was mainly supplied by the vertical convergence of moisture flux and the divergence terms, and consumed by the condensation process. The horizontal convergence of moisture flux term supplied moisture in the air moistening process but consumed moisture in the air drying process. With a dryer mid- and upper-level environment, convective and stratiform precipitation were both inhibited. The upward mass fluxes and the diabatic heating rates associated with these two precipitation types were also suppressed. Generally, convection played the dominant role, since the impact of the stratiform process on vertical mass transportation and diabatic heating was much weaker. The vorticity budget showed that the negative vorticity convergence term, which was closely related to the inhibited convection, caused the vorticity to decrease above the lower troposphere in a dryer environment. The negative vorticity tendency is suggested to slow down the vertical coherence and the development rate of TCs.
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    Accepted:
    Influence of Atmospheric Particulate Matter on Ozone in Nanjing, China: Observational Study and Mechanistic Analysis
    Yawei QU, Tijian WANG, Yanfeng CAI, Shekou WANG, Pulong CHEN, Shu LI, Mengmeng LI, Cheng YUAN, Jing WANG, Shaocai XU
    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-8027-4
    Abstract   ( 131 ) PDF (2749KB) (46)
    Particulate matter with diameters of 2.5 µm or smaller (PM2.5 ) and ozone (O3 ) are major pollutants in the urban atmosphere. PM2.5 can affect O3 by altering the photolysis rate and heterogeneous reactions. However, these two processes and their relative importance remain uncertain. In this paper, with Nanjing in China as the target city, we investigate the characteristics and mechanism of interactions between particles and O3 based on ground observations and numerical modeling. The average concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 at Caochangmen station are 64.6 ± 47.4 μg m−3 and 24.6 ± 22.8 ppb, respectively, while at Pukou station they are 94.1 ± 63.4 μg m−3 and 16.9 ± 14.9 ppb. The correlation coefficient between PM2.5 and O3 is −0.46. In order to understand the reaction between PM2.5 and O3 , we construct a box model, in which an aerosol optical property model, ultraviolet radiation model, gas phase chemistry model, and heterogeneous chemistry model, are coupled. The model is employed to investigate the relative contribution of the aforementioned two processes, which vary under different particle concentrations, scattering capability and VOC:NOx ratios (VOC: volatile organic compound; NOx: nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide). Generally, heterogeneous reactions dominate O3 reduction with low-level particle concentrations. Moreover, in typical VOC-sensitive regions with low particle concentrations, O3 can even be increased. In Nanjing, both processes lead to O3 reduction, and photolysis is dominant. Our study underscores the importance of photolysis and heterogeneous reactions for O3, and such interaction processes should be fully considered in future atmospheric chemistry modeling.
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    Accepted:
    Predictable and Unpredictable Components of the Summer East Asia–Pacific Teleconnection Pattern
    Xiaozhen LIN, Chaofan LI, Riyu LU, Adam A. SCAIFE
    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-7305-5
    Abstract   ( 45 ) PDF (2389KB) (13)
    The East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern is the dominant mode of circulation variability during boreal summer over the western North Pacific and East Asia, extending from the tropics to high latitudes. However, much of this pattern is absent in multi-model ensemble mean forecasts, characterized by very weak circulation anomalies in the mid and high latitudes. This study focuses on the absence of the EAP pattern in the extratropics, using state-of-the-art coupled seasonal forecast systems. The results indicate that the extratropical circulation is much less predictable, and lies in the large spread among different ensemble members, implying a large contribution from atmospheric internal variability. However, the tropical–mid-latitude teleconnections are also relatively weaker in models than observations, which also contributes to the failure of prediction of the extratropical circulation. Further results indicate that the extratropical EAP pattern varies closely with the anomalous surface temperatures in eastern Russia, which also show low predictability. This unpredictable circulation–surface temperature connection associated with the EAP pattern can also modulate the East Asian rainband.
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    Accepted:
    Modulation of the Intensity of Nascent Tibetan Plateau Vortices by Atmospheric Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation
    Lun LI, Renhe ZHANG, Min WEN, Jianping DUAN
    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-8057-y
    Abstract   ( 113 ) PDF (4306KB) (14)
    The modulation of the intensity of nascent Tibetan Plateau vortices (ITPV) by atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is investigated based on final operational global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The spatial and temporal distributions of the ITPV show distinct features of 10–20-day QBWO. The average ITPV is much higher in the positive phases than in the negative phases, and the number of strong TPVs is much larger in the former, with a peak that appears in phase 3. In addition, the maximum centers of the ITPV stretch eastward in the positive phases, indicating periodic variations in the locations where strong TPVs are generated. The large-scale circulations and related thermodynamic fields are discussed to investigate the mechanism by which the 10–20-day QBWO modulates the ITPV. The atmospheric circulations and heating fields of the 10–20-day QBWO have a major impact on the ITPV. In the positive QBWO phases, the anomalous convergence at 500 hPa and divergence at 200 hPa are conducive to ascending motion. In addition, the convergence centers of the water vapor and the atmospheric unstable stratification are found in the positive QBWO phases and move eastward. Correspondingly, condensational latent heat is released and shifts eastward with the heating centers located at 400 hPa, which favors a higher ITPV by depressing the isobaric surface at 500 hPa. All of the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions in the positive QBWO phases are conducive to the generation of stronger TPVs and their eastward expansion.
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    Accepted:
    Optimal Initial Error Growth in the Prediction of the Kuroshio Large Meander Based on a High-resolution Regional Ocean Model
    Xia LIU, Qiang WANG, Mu MU
    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-8003-z
    Abstract   ( 40 ) PDF (3001KB) (8)
    Based on the high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method, this study explored the effects of optimal initial errors on the prediction of the Kuroshio large meander (LM) path, and the growth mechanism of optimal initial errors was revealed. For each LM event, two types of initial error (denoted as CNOP1 and CNOP2) were obtained. Their large amplitudes were found located mainly in the upper 2500 m in the upstream region of the LM, i.e., southeast of Kyushu. Furthermore, we analyzed the patterns and nonlinear evolution of the two types of CNOP. We found CNOP1 tends to strengthen the LM path through southwestward extension. Conversely, CNOP2 has almost the opposite pattern to CNOP1, and it tends to weaken the LM path through northeastward contraction. The growth mechanism of optimal initial errors was clarified through eddy-energetics analysis. The results indicated that energy from the background field is transferred to the error field because of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities. Thus, it is inferred that both barotropic and baroclinic processes play important roles in the growth of CNOP-type optimal initial errors.
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    Accepted:
    Determination of Intraseasonal Variation of Precipitation Microphysics in the Southern Indian Ocean from Joss–Waldvogel Disdrometer Observation during the CINDY Field Campaign
    MARZUKI, Hiroyuki HASHIGUCHI, Mutya VONNISA, HARMADI, Masaki KATSUMATA
    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-8026-5
    Abstract   ( 12 ) PDF (1660KB) (3)
    To date, the intraseasonal variation of raindrop size distribution (DSD) in response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been examined only over the Indonesian Maritime Continent, particularly in Sumatra. This paper presents the intraseasonal variation of DSD over the Indian Ocean during the Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY 2011) field campaign. The DSDs determined using a Joss–Waldvogel disdrometer, which was installed on the roof of the anti-rolling system of the R/V Mirai during stationary observation (25 September to 30 November 2011) at (8?S, 80.5?E), were analyzed. The vertical structure of precipitation was revealed by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (version 7) data. While the general features of vertical structures of precipitation observed during the CINDY and Sumatra observation are similar, the intraseasonal variation of the DSD in response to the MJO at each location is slightly different. The DSDs during the active phase of the MJO are slightly broader than those during the inactive phase, which is indicated by a larger Dm (mass-weighted mean diameter) value. Furthermore, the radar reflectivity during the active MJO phase is greater than that during the inactive phase at the same rainfall rate. The microphysical processes that generate large-sized drops over the ocean appear to be more dominant during the active MJO phase, in contrast to the observations made on land (Sumatra). This finding is consistent with the characteristics of radar reflectivity below the freezing level, storm height, bright band height, cloud effective radius, and aerosol optical depth.
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    Accepted:
    Estimating the Correlated Observation-Error Characteristics of the Chinese FengYun Microwave Temperature Sounder and Microwave Humidity Sounder
    Ting WANG, Jianfang FEI, Xiaoping CHENG, Xiaogang HUANG, Jian ZHONG
    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-8014-9
    Abstract   ( 89 ) PDF (1871KB) (20)
    In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal. However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder (MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A (FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model’s Community Variational Data Assimilation System (WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions. The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy.
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    Accepted:
    Locating Parent Lightning Strokes of Sprites Observed over a Mesoscale Convective System in Shandong Province, China
    Anjing HUANG, Gaopeng LU, Hongbo ZHANG, Feifan LIU, Yanfeng FAN, Baoyou ZHU, Jing YANG, Zhichao WANG
    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-7306-4
    Abstract   ( 153 ) PDF (3479KB) (26)
    In this paper, we report the location results for the parent lightning strokes of more than 30 red sprites observed over an asymmetric mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 30 July 2015 in Shandong Province, China, with a long-baseline lightning location network of very-low-frequency/low-frequency magnetic field sensors. The results show that almost all of these cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes are produced during the mature stage of the MCS, and are predominantly located in the trailing stratiform region, which is similar to analyses of sprite-productive MCSs in North America and Europe. Comparison between the location results for the sprite-producing CG strokes and those provided by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) indicates that the location accuracy of WWLLN for intense CG strokes in Shandong Province is typically within 10 km, which is consistent with the result based on analysis of 2838 sprite-producing CG strokes in the continental United States. Also, we analyze two cases where some minor lightning discharges in the parent flash of sprites can also be located, providing an approach to confine the thundercloud region tapped by the sprite-producing CG strokes.
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    Accepted:
    Temporal and Spatial Variations in the Climate Controls of Vegetation Dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau during 1982--2011
    Ting HUA, Xunming WANG
    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-7064-3
    Abstract   ( 486 ) PDF (1969KB) (187)
    The ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau is highly susceptible to climate change. Currently, there is little discussion on the temporal changes in the link between climatic factors and vegetation dynamics in this region under the changing climate. By employing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, the Climatic Research Unit temperature and precipitation data, and the in-situ meteorological observations, we report the temporal and spatial variations in the relationships between the vegetation dynamics and climatic factors on the Plateau over the past three decades. The results show that from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern part of the Plateau appears to show a closer relationship with precipitation prior to the growing season than that of temperature. From the mid-1990s, the temperature rise seems to be the key climatic factor correlating vegetation growth in this region. The effects of increasing temperature on vegetation are spatially variable across the Plateau: it has negative impacts on vegetation activity in the southwestern and northeastern part of the Plateau, and positive impacts in the central and southeastern Plateau. In the context of global warming, the changing climate condition (increasing precipitation and significant rising temperature) might be the potential contributor to the shift in the climatic controls on vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern Plateau.
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    Accepted:
    Investigating the Initial Errors that Cause Predictability Barriers for Indian Ocean Dipole Events Using CMIP5 Model Outputs
    Rong FENG, Wansuo DUAN
    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-7214-7
    Abstract   ( 46 ) PDF (3450KB) (9)
    By analyzing the outputs of the pre-industrial control runs of four models within phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, the effects of initial sea temperature errors on the predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole events were identified. The initial errors cause a significant winter predictability barrier (WPB) or summer predictability barrier (SPB). The WPB is closely related with the initial errors in the tropical Indian Ocean, where two types of WPB-related initial errors display opposite patterns and a west–east dipole. In contrast, the occurrence of the SPB is mainly caused by initial errors in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where two types of SPB-related initial errors exhibit opposite patterns, with one pole in the subsurface western Pacific Ocean and the other in the upper eastern Pacific Ocean. Both of the WPB-related initial errors grow the fastest in winter, because the coupled system is at its weakest, and finally cause a significant WPB. The SPB-related initial errors develop into a La Niña–like mode in the Pacific Ocean. The negative SST errors in the Pacific Ocean induce westerly wind anomalies in the Indian Ocean by modulating the Walker circulation in the tropical oceans. The westerly wind anomalies first cool the sea surface water in the eastern Indian Ocean. When the climatological wind direction reverses in summer, the wind anomalies in turn warm the sea surface water, finally causing a significant SPB. Therefore, in addition to the spatial patterns of the initial errors, the climatological conditions also play an important role in causing a significant predictability barrier.
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