• Adv. Atmos. Sci.  2019, Vol. 36 Issue (3): 279-291    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-8138-y
    Global Monsoon Changes under the Paris Agreement Temperature Goals in CESM1(CAM5)
    Xia QU1, 2, 3, *(), Gang HUANG1, 3
    1Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    2State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    3Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Beijing 100875, China

    Based on experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) [CESM1(CAM5)], and an observational dataset, we found that CESM1-CAM5 is able to reproduce global monsoon (GM) features, including the patterns of monsoon precipitation and monsoon domains, the magnitude of GM precipitation (GMP, the local summer precipitation), GM area (GMA), and GM percentage (the ratio of the local summer precipitation to annual precipitation). Under the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the GM in CESM1-CAM5 displays the following changes: (2) The GMA is ambiguous under the 1.5°C temperature goal and increases under the 2.0°C temperature goal. The increase mainly results from a change in the monsoon percentage. (3) The GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon precipitation all significantly increase under both the 1.5°C and 2.0°C goals. The increases are mainly due to the enhancement of humidity and evaporation. (3) The percentages of GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon feature little change under the temperature goals. (4) The lengths of the GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon are significantly prolonged under the temperature goals. The increase in precipitation during the monsoon withdrawal month mainly accounts for the prolonged monsoons. Regarding the differences between the 1.5°C and 2.0°C temperature goals, it is certain that the GMP displays significant discrepancies. In addition, a large-scale enhancement of ascending motion occurs over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and South China under a warming climate, whereas other monsoon areas experience an overall decline in ascending motion. This leads to an extraordinary wetting over Asian monsoon areas.

    Keywords global monsoon      Paris Agreement      temperature goals      precipitation     
    Corresponding Authors: Xia QU   
    Just Accepted Date: 06 December 2018   Issue Date: 16 January 2019
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    Xia QU,Gang HUANG. Global Monsoon Changes under the Paris Agreement Temperature Goals in CESM1(CAM5)[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2019, 36(3): 279 -291 .
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    UNFCCC, 2015: Adoption of the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC.
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