• Adv. Atmos. Sci.  2019, Vol. 36 Issue (3): 279-291    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-8138-y
    Global Monsoon Changes under the Paris Agreement Temperature Goals in CESM1(CAM5)
    Xia QU1, 2, 3, *(), Gang HUANG1, 3
    1Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    2State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    3Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Beijing 100875, China
    Abstract
    Abstract  

    Based on experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) [CESM1(CAM5)], and an observational dataset, we found that CESM1-CAM5 is able to reproduce global monsoon (GM) features, including the patterns of monsoon precipitation and monsoon domains, the magnitude of GM precipitation (GMP, the local summer precipitation), GM area (GMA), and GM percentage (the ratio of the local summer precipitation to annual precipitation). Under the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the GM in CESM1-CAM5 displays the following changes: (2) The GMA is ambiguous under the 1.5°C temperature goal and increases under the 2.0°C temperature goal. The increase mainly results from a change in the monsoon percentage. (3) The GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon precipitation all significantly increase under both the 1.5°C and 2.0°C goals. The increases are mainly due to the enhancement of humidity and evaporation. (3) The percentages of GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon feature little change under the temperature goals. (4) The lengths of the GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon are significantly prolonged under the temperature goals. The increase in precipitation during the monsoon withdrawal month mainly accounts for the prolonged monsoons. Regarding the differences between the 1.5°C and 2.0°C temperature goals, it is certain that the GMP displays significant discrepancies. In addition, a large-scale enhancement of ascending motion occurs over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and South China under a warming climate, whereas other monsoon areas experience an overall decline in ascending motion. This leads to an extraordinary wetting over Asian monsoon areas.

    Keywords global monsoon      Paris Agreement      temperature goals      precipitation     
    Corresponding Authors: Xia QU   
    Just Accepted Date: 06 December 2018   Issue Date: 16 January 2019
    Service
    E-mail this article
    E-mail Alert
    RSS
    Articles by authors
    Xia QU
    Gang HUANG
    Cite this article:   
    Xia QU,Gang HUANG. Global Monsoon Changes under the Paris Agreement Temperature Goals in CESM1(CAM5)[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2019, 36(3): 279 -291 .
    URL:  
    http://159.226.119.58/aas/EN/10.1007/s00376-018-8138-y     OR     
    http://159.226.119.58/aas/EN/Y2019/V36/I3/279
    References
    1  
    2  
    3  
    4  
    5  
    6  
    7  
    8  
    9  
    10  
    11  
    12  
    13  
    14  
    15  
    16  
    17  
    18  
    19  
    20  
    21  
    22  
    23  
    UNFCCC, 2015: Adoption of the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC.
    24  
    25  
    26  
    27  
    28  
    Related
    [1] Xinyu LI,Riyu LU. Seesaw Pattern of Rainfall Anomalies between the Tropical Western North Pacific and Central Southern China during Late Summer[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2019, 36(3): 261 -270 .
    [2] Yongguang ZHENG,Yanduo GONG,Jiong CHEN,Fuyou TIAN. Warm-Season Diurnal Variations of Total, Stratiform, Convective, and Extreme Hourly Precipitation over Central and Eastern China[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2019, 36(2): 143 -159 .
    [3] Lu LIU,Lingkun RAN,Shouting GAO. A Three-dimensional Wave Activity Flux of Inertia-Gravity Waves and Its Application to a Rainstorm Event[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2019, 36(2): 206 -218 .
    [4] Peiling FU,Kefeng ZHU,Kun ZHAO,Bowen ZHOU,Ming XUE. Role of the Nocturnal Low-level Jet in the Formation of the Morning Precipitation Peak over the Dabie Mountains[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2019, 36(1): 15 -28 .
    [5] Tingting HAN,Shengping HE,Huijun WANG,Xin HAO. Variation in Principal Modes of Midsummer Precipitation over Northeast China and Its Associated Atmospheric Circulation[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2019, 36(1): 55 -64 .
    [6] Wei HAN,Cunde XIAO,Tingfeng DOU,Minghu DING. Changes in the Proportion of Precipitation Occurring as Rain in Northern Canada during Spring-Summer from 1979-2015[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(9): 1129 -1136 .
    [7] Lixia ZHANG,Tianjun ZHOU,Nicholas P. KLINGAMAN,Peili WU,Malcolm ROBERTS. Effect of Horizontal Resolution on the Representation of the Global Monsoon Annual Cycle in AGCMs[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(8): 1003 -1020 .
    [8] Kai Chi WONG,Senfeng LIU,Andrew G. TURNER,Reinhard K. SCHIEMANN. Different Asian Monsoon Rainfall Responses to Idealized Orography Sensitivity Experiments in the HadGEM3-GA6 and FGOALS-FAMIL Global Climate Models[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(8): 1049 -1062 .
    [9] Jiangshan ZHU,Fanyou KONG,Xiao-Ming HU,Yan GUO,Lingkun RAN,Hengchi LEI. Impact of Soil Moisture Uncertainty on Summertime Short-range Ensemble Forecasts[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(7): 839 -852 .
    [10] Yao YAO,Dehai LUO. An Asymmetric Spatiotemporal Connection between the Euro-Atlantic Blocking within the NAO Life Cycle and European Climates[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(7): 796 -812 .
    [11] Lu LIU,Lingkun RAN,Shouting GAO. Analysis of the Characteristics of Inertia-Gravity Waves during an Orographic Precipitation Event[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(5): 604 -620 .
    [12] Changyu ZHAO,Haishan CHEN,Shanlei SUN. Evaluating the Capabilities of Soil Enthalpy, Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature in Predicting Seasonal Precipitation[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(4): 445 -456 .
    [13] Yuan WANG,Jonathan M. VOGEL,Yun LIN,Bowen PAN,Jiaxi HU,Yangang LIU,Xiquan DONG,Jonathan H. JIANG,Yuk L. YUNG,Renyi ZHANG. Aerosol Microphysical and Radiative Effects on Continental Cloud Ensembles[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(2): 234 -247 .
    [14] Yaping WANG,Yongjie HUANG,Xiaopeng CUI. Impact of Mid- and Upper-Level Dry Air on Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Intensification: A Modeling Study of Durian (2001)[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(12): 1505 -1521 .
    [15] Xinyu LI,Riyu LU. Subseasonal Change in the Seesaw Pattern of Precipitation between the Yangtze River Basin and the Tropical Western North Pacific during Summer[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(10): 1231 -1242 .