• Adv. Atmos. Sci.  2018, Vol. 35 Issue (8): 918-926    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-7210-y
    Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall
    Philip E. BETT1(), Adam A. SCAIFE1, 2, Chaofan LI3, Chris HEWITT1, Nicola GOLDING1, Peiqun ZHANG4, Nick DUNSTONE1, Doug M. SMITH1, Hazel E. THORNTON1, Riyu LU5, Hong-Li REN4
    1Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
    2College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon EX4 4QF, UK
    3Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    4Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    5State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    Abstract
    Abstract  

    The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from El Niño to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Niño in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements.

    Keywords seasonal forecasting      flood forecasting      Yangtze basin rainfall      ENSO      hydroelectricity     
    Just Accepted Date: 23 February 2018   Issue Date: 05 June 2018
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    Articles by authors
    Philip E. BETT
    Adam A. SCAIFE
    Chaofan LI
    Chris HEWITT
    Nicola GOLDING
    Peiqun ZHANG
    Nick DUNSTONE
    Doug M. SMITH
    Hazel E. THORNTON
    Riyu LU
    Hong-Li REN
    Cite this article:   
    Philip E. BETT,Adam A. SCAIFE,Chaofan LI, et al. Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(8): 918 -926 .
    URL:  
    http://159.226.119.58/aas/EN/10.1007/s00376-018-7210-y     OR     
    http://159.226.119.58/aas/EN/Y2018/V35/I8/918
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