• Adv. Atmos. Sci.  2018, Vol. 35 Issue (7): 757-770    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-7160-4
    Climate Change of 4°C Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels
    Xiaoxin WANG1, 5, Dabang JIANG1, 2, 4, 5(), Xianmei LANG1, 2, 3
    1Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    2CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    3Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    4Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
    5University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Abstract
    Abstract  

    Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-to-noise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the inter-model consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

    Keywords 4°C global warming      timing      climate change      signal-to-noise ratio      uncertainty     
    Just Accepted Date: 14 March 2018   Issue Date: 15 May 2018
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    Xiaoxin WANG
    Dabang JIANG
    Xianmei LANG
    Cite this article:   
    Xiaoxin WANG,Dabang JIANG,Xianmei LANG. Climate Change of 4°C Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(7): 757 -770 .
    URL:  
    http://159.226.119.58/aas/EN/10.1007/s00376-018-7160-4     OR     
    http://159.226.119.58/aas/EN/Y2018/V35/I7/757
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