• Adv. Atmos. Sci.  2018, Vol. 35 Issue (4): 376-388    DOI: 10.1007/s00376-017-6269-1
    Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble
    Ying XU1, Xuejie GAO2, 5(), Filippo GIORGI3, Botao ZHOU1, 4, Ying SHI1, Jie WU2, Yongxiang ZHANG1
    1National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    2Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    3The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, PO Box 586, Trieste 34100, Italy
    4CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies (LCPS/CMA-NJU), Nanjing 210023, China
    5University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

    Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to <10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

    Keywords CMIP5      extremes      return values and periods      China     
    Just Accepted Date: 13 November 2017   Issue Date: 28 February 2018
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    Ying XU
    Xuejie GAO
    Filippo GIORGI
    Botao ZHOU
    Ying SHI
    Jie WU
    Yongxiang ZHANG
    Cite this article:   
    Ying XU,Xuejie GAO,Filippo GIORGI, et al. Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018, 35(4): 376 -388 .
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